Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
NTIA 11.038 FY2026 obligations
What will USAspending API v2 advanced search spending_over_time report as FY2026 aggregated financial-assistance transaction obligations, in usd_millions, for Assistance Listing 11.038 Public Wireless Supply Chain Innovation Fund Grant Program, grouped by fiscal_year, under the registered query snapshot and first registered snapshot policy?
current forecast · 80% CI$45M
$5M$45M$290M
history:FY2024 official NTIA first-NOFO award total proxy: $140MFY2025 official NTIA second-NOFO awarded total proxy: $409.852MFY2026 Grants.gov NOFO4 estimated total funding proxy: $53M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-11T20:53:14Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usaspending.ntia.broadband_al11038_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Key drivers
- NOFO4 closes late in FY2026
- Only three expected NOFO4 awards
- Prior award cycles were lumpy
- FY2026 awards may slip into FY2027
- Unexpected late obligations remain possible
Resolution
- source
- USAspending API v2 advanced search, spending_over_time
- expected
- October 22, 2026
- rule
- Resolve from USAspending API v2 advanced search, financial-assistance award transactions filtered to Assistance Listing 11.038, award_type_codes 02-11, spending_level transactions, grouped by fiscal_year; use results[time_period.fiscal_year=2026].aggregated_amount multiplied by 1e-06 and rounded to usd_millions. The registered query snapshot policy resolves on the Thesis lab-committed outer bound 2026-10-22, with expectedReleaseWindow 2026-10-15 through 2026-10-22; later USAspending changes are irrelevant.
- Data point
- usaspending.ntia.broadband_al11038_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: web.openhidden
▸ recorded source check: web.searchhidden
▸ recorded source check: web.searchhidden
▸ recorded source check: web.searchhidden
▸ recorded source check: web.searchhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.