Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US New Home Sales SAAR, July 2026
What will the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD first report for sales of new single-family houses in July 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, in thousands?
current forecast · 80% CI620k
538k620k702k
history:2026-06 latest preliminary SAAR: 628k2026-05 revised SAAR: 618k2026-04 revised SAAR: 646k2026-03 revised SAAR: 659k2025-07 SAAR: 648k
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-25T16:06:02Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 25, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- census.new_residential_sales.new_single_family_houses_sold_saar.2026_07.first_print
Key drivers
- June sales rebounded modestly from revised May but stayed below June 2025
- High months' supply and elevated for-sale inventory lean against a large upside move
- Single-family permits softened in June, pointing to cautious builder conditions
- Large month-to-month noise in new-home sales keeps the interval wide
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau and HUD New Residential Sales, Table 1, first print archived for HSN1F
- expected
- August 25, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first published July 2026 value for New Houses Sold, United States, seasonally adjusted annual rate, Table 1a/New Residential Sales series HSN1F, in thousands. Use the first official print only; ignore later revisions and seasonal-revision changes unless the original release is formally withdrawn before publication.
- Data point
- census.new_residential_sales.new_single_family_houses_sold_saar.2026_07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.