Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
FY2026 CDFI Assistance Obligations
What will the USAspending API v2 advanced search spending_over_time registered query return for FY2026 signed net federal_action_obligation, grouped by fiscal_year, for Community Development Financial Institutions Fund awarding-subagency financial-assistance award transactions, on the registered query snapshot captured for the first FY2026 resolution window?
current forecast · 80% CI$281.1M
$-540.6M$281.1M$1,102.8M
history:FY2014 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $217.238MFY2015 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $232.19MFY2016 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $3.525MFY2017 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $498.978MFY2018 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $341.83MFY2019 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $201.446MFY2020 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $544.341MFY2021 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $1,457.587MFY2022 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $577.038MFY2023 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $1,986.065MFY2024 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $782.043MFY2025 registered query full-year obligations, usd_millions: $319.455MFY2026 same-query year-to-date through 2026-08-12, usd_millions: $-7.003M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-12T20:54:08Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 12, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usaspending.cdfi.assistance_transaction_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Key drivers
- FY2025 persistence at $319.5m
- FY2026 same-query YTD at -$7.0m
- late-FY additions averaged $134.7m in FY2020-FY2025
- CDFI award timing is lumpy
- wide same-query historical dispersion
Resolution
- source
- USAspending API v2, search spending_over_time
- expected
- October 22, 2026
- rule
- Resolve from the first archived registered query snapshot captured within the 2026-10-15 through 2026-10-22 expectedReleaseWindow for USAspending API v2 advanced search, CDFI Fund awarding-subagency financial-assistance award transactions, obligations by fiscal year. POST the registered body with agencies=[{type: awarding, tier: subtier, name: Community Development Financial Institutions Fund}], award_type_codes=[02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11], time_period FY2026 2025-10-01 through 2026-09-30, group=fiscal_year, spending_level=transactions. Read results[time_period.fiscal_year=2026].aggregated_amount, multiply by 1e-6, and report usd_millions from the registered query snapshot; later USAspending revisions after the archived snapshot do not change this resolution.
- Data point
- usaspending.cdfi.assistance_transaction_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timehidden
▸ recorded source check: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timehidden
▸ recorded source check: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timehidden
▸ recorded source check: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timehidden
▸ recorded source check: curl.github.raw_and_specshidden
▸ recorded source check: local.model_candidateshidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.