Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Belgium NBB business barometer, August 2026
National Bank of Belgium monthly business surveys, overall synthetic curve for Belgium, total sector, seasonally adjusted, August 2026, first official print
current forecast · 80% CI-11.9
-15.1-11.9-8.7
history:2026-07 overall business barometer: -11.92026-06 overall business barometer: -12.42026-05 overall business barometer: -13.32026-04 overall business barometer: -14.22026-03 overall business barometer: -13.72026-02 overall business barometer: -13.7
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-13T07:20:15Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 13, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- nbb.business_barometer.overall.2026-08.first_print
Key drivers
- July first print was -11.9 after -12.4 in June
- persistence beats a trailing-3 mean in the walk-forward check
- services improved in July while trade weakened
- no direct August survey signal is available before the print
- monthly first-print changes remain volatile
Resolution
- source
- National Bank of Belgium business survey release
- expected
- August 28, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first National Bank of Belgium published monthly business surveys overall synthetic curve for Belgium, total sector, seasonally adjusted, period 2026-08, reported in index points and rounded to one decimal. SDMX identity: DF_BUSSURVM key M.SYNC.BE.A999.S (FREQ monthly, BUSSURVM_INDICATOR synthetic curve, BE_AREA Belgium, BUSSURV_SECTOR Total, BUSSURVM_ADJ seasonally adjusted). Use the first official print only; ignore later NBB.Stat revisions, corrections after the first release, and third-party mirrors. The resolving URL remains the registered NBB business survey page; the NBB SDMX API was used only for pre-resolution history and series-identity evidence.
- Data point
- nbb.business_barometer.overall.2026-08.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: nbb.dsdhidden
▸ recorded source check: nbb.sdmxhidden
▸ recorded source check: nbb.sdmxhidden
▸ recorded source check: model.candidateshidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.